Examining the relationship between public spending and some socioeconomic indicators of Ho Chi Minh city using time series models

Abstract

This paper used multiple time series regression models namely VAR(p) — (Vector Autoregression ) and VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) to study the relationship between public spending and some socioeconomic indicators of Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) such as — gross Domestic Product; FDI — Foreign Direct Investment..., the topic that has received a special interest of both economists and governmental authorities. With the main contents include introducing the economic geography of Ho Chi Minh City, we expect the empirical results to aim to find the relationship public spending and some socioeconomic indicators of Ho Chi Minh City. Through analyzing research methods and pointing out a suitable model, it helps managers adjust policies, so that public spending brings the highest efficiency to the economic leader of the country, Ho Chi Minh City. This model helps us consider the long-term relationship of variables (time series). The results of the model are read through Granger causality tests, Graph of impulse response function. The table decomposes variance and co-integration equations... They are so useful to show the effectiveness of applying econometric models in the analysis of economic and financial problems.