Factors affecting Vietnam's canned tuna exports to the US and EU markets: An approach by gravity model

Abstract

As a country with strengths in seafood exports, tuna is currently the export item with the most significant commercial value among Vietnam's seafood exports, in which canned tuna accounts for nearly half of the total export value of tuna products in general. However, in recent times, the export market and the export value of canned tuna from Vietnam to markets have been unstable for many reasons. In this study, the gravity model is applied to determine the factors affecting Vietnam's canned tuna exports to the two largest markets, the US and the EU, in 2007 - 2022 for a balanced panel dataset of 192 observations of 12 major import partners. The research results show that the exchange rate factor has the most positive impact on Vietnam's canned tuna exports to the US and the EU, followed by domestic tuna production, and the importing country's population also positively impacts exports. On the contrary, high import tax rates in recent times have been the most significant barrier hindering Vietnam's canned tuna exports in recent times, followed by the increase in per capita income of importing countries, which has also limited tuna imports from Vietnam. The research results also show that the signing of free trade agreements between Vietnam and importing countries and the selection of suitable export markets are two factors that have a positive impact on Vietnam's canned tuna exports to the US and EU during the research period, but these factors have not had a noticeable effect. In addition, the research also shows that the EC's yellow card warning for IUU fishing violations harms Vietnam's canned tuna exports to the US and EU markets, but this impact is not large and clear.