Factors affecting Vietnam's coffee export in the period of 2008 - 2020

Abstract

In recent years, coffee export has always been one of the top 10 export industries of Vietnam with a high share of the country's total agricultural export turnover. In 2020, the world's economy will be severely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. As an obvious consequence, Vietnam's coffee exports are also not immune to damage due to a drop in demand in the world market. Therefore, solutions to promote coffee export activities can be considered as the top concerns of policymakers. This article aims to find out the factors affecting Vietnam's coffee exports in the period 2008-2020. Thereby, it is possible to find the right direction, seize opportunities, improve competitiveness for domestic enterprises and take advantage of the strength to promote Vietnam's coffee exports. By combining static and dynamic methods in regression models for panel data such as pooled regression model (Pooled OLS), fixed effects model (FEM), random effects model (REM), feasible general least squares model (FGLS) and system generalized moment model (SGMM), this study has demonstrated that the SGMM model has the best results in finding the main factors, as well as the influence of them to Vietnam's coffee exports. Besides the positive effect of the lagged variable on Vietnam's current coffee exports has been detected, the research results have shown that hypotheses about the expected impact of variables in the model such as distance in terms of geography, exchange rates, and aggregate population are mostly satisfied. From the results obtained, recommendations have been proposed for management organizations, businesses and farmers to promote coffee exports and raise Vietnam's position in the international market.